Here’s a fairly thorough breakdown of whether the current strong run of gold makes it a wise buy now, including what’s driving the move, what risks there are, and where you might want to place yourself depending on your goals. Nothing here is financial advice — consider it educational input to help you arrive at your decision.


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✅ What looks good for gold right now

There are several strong bullish arguments supporting why the price of gold is going up — and could continue doing so.

  • The price of gold has reached new records in 2025. For example, spot gold recently passed ~US$4,200-4,300 per ounce. (Trading Economics)

  • Major banks and institutions are raising forecasts. For instance, HSBC raised its 2025 average forecast, and even sees scenarios of ~US$5,000/oz by 2026. (Reuters)

  • Strong structural demand:

    • Central banks have been buying gold (e.g., diversifying away from the US dollar). (Morgan Stanley)

    • Safe-haven / risk-hedge demand: Geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, inflation worries all boost demand for gold. (Econofact)

  • Macro environment: Lower expected future real yields (interest rates minus inflation) tend to favour gold. Because gold doesn’t yield interest, when interest rates are low (or expected to go lower) the opportunity cost of holding gold falls. (Investopedia)

  • Currency effects: A weaker US dollar tends to help gold in USD terms (since gold is usually dollar-denominated). (CME Group)

So if you believe that uncertainty remains elevated, inflation remains sticky, real yields stay low, and central banks continue buying — then from those premises gold looks like it has decent tailwinds.


⚠️ What might work against gold

On the flip side, there are meaningful risks and caveats to be aware of.

  • Valuation / price already high: When something has already rallied strongly it may have less room to run (or the probability of a pull-back increases). Some analysts point out gold may be “overbought” in the short term. (Reuters)

  • Real yields may rise: If inflation falls or central banks (e.g., US Federal Reserve) signal further tightening, interest rates or real yields could go up — that tends to reduce the attractiveness of gold. (CBS News)

  • Opportunity cost: If equity markets do well, or other assets (bonds, real estate) perform strongly, then the relative appeal of gold (which doesn’t produce income) may drop.

  • Supply/demand shocks: Though gold supply is relatively stable, changes in demand dynamics (jewellery, industrial, technology) or unexpected policy changes could shift things.

  • Risk of over-enthusiasm: When many participants pile in, there is a risk that sentiment gets stretched and corrections become possible.


🎯 My view: Should you buy now?

Whether you should buy depends a lot on your personal situation (investment horizon, risk tolerance, portfolio strategy, what you already hold etc.). Here are a few scenarios and how you might think about them:

  • If you have a long-term horizon (5+ years) and you believe in the structural case (inflation risk, currency debasement, uncertainty etc.), then allocating some portion of your portfolio to gold (or gold exposure) as a hedge makes sense.

  • If you are shorter term (1-2 years) and the price is already high, you may consider waiting for a pull-back (“buy on dips”) rather than buying at the peak.

  • If you already have significant exposure to gold (physical, ETFs, mining stocks), then you should evaluate if adding more is diversifying or simply increasing concentration.

  • Consider how much to buy: Gold is typically seen as part of a broader asset mix rather than the main bet. It can be a hedge rather than the core.

  • Consider the form of exposure: physical gold, ETFs, mining stocks, or derivatives all have different cost structures, risks, liquidity etc.


🔍 My “bottom-line” recommendation

Yes — I lean slightly bullish on gold for the medium term because many of the supporting themes are intact. But I would not expect a straight line upward: volatility and potential pull-backs are likely.

  • If I were you and hadn’t yet allocated to gold, I might consider buying a moderate amount now (or better, staging-in over time) rather than an all-in.

  • If you already hold a lot of gold, you might consider taking some profits or setting a plan for how much you want as a hedge vs. how much as a speculative position.

  • If you decide to buy, be sure you’re comfortable with potential short-term fluctuations (downwards) even if the long-term case is strong.



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Disclaimer: The above content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting with a licensed financial advisor or accountant before making any financial decisions. Panaprium does not guarantee, vouch for or necessarily endorse any of the above content, nor is responsible for it in any manner whatsoever. Any opinions expressed here are based on personal experiences and should not be viewed as an endorsement or guarantee of specific outcomes. Investing and financial decisions carry risks, and you should be aware of these before proceeding.

About the Author: Alex Assoune


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