It’s impossible to predict with certainty whether a crash like the 2021–22 collapse will occur, but many analysts believe the probability is non-trivial. Whether it happens “next year” depends on how a mix of macro, market, and crypto-specific risk factors play out. Here’s a reasoned assessment of the risks, counter-forces, and scenarios:
Panaprium is independent and reader supported. If you buy something through our link, we may earn a commission. If you can, please support us on a monthly basis. It takes less than a minute to set up, and you will be making a big impact every single month. Thank you!
Key factors that could trigger a crash
These are some of the major risk drivers that, if they worsen, could lead to a significant drawdown:
| Risk Factor | Mechanism of Damage | Current Warning Signs |
|---|---|---|
| Monetary tightening / central banks | If inflation stays sticky, central banks (especially the U.S. Fed) may resume rate hikes or delay cuts. That raises discount rates and makes risk assets (like crypto) less attractive. | Inflation remains elevated in many places; central banks are still cautious. |
| Liquidity withdrawal / tighter credit markets | If lending standards tighten, lenders reduce risk exposure, margin calls rise, and forced liquidations cascade. | Some signs of stress in credit markets; increasing yields on government debt. |
| Regulatory or policy shocks | New laws, crackdowns, or bans targeting crypto/DeFi could spook investors and force deleveraging. | Regulatory debates in the U.S., Europe, China, etc., are ongoing and unsettled. |
| Crypto-specific failures | Collapse of a major stablecoin, big protocol exploit, insolvency of large institutions (exchanges, hedge funds) could cause contagion. | Past episodes (e.g. Terra, FTX) show how fragile confidence can be. |
| Correlation to equities / macro risk | Bitcoin and crypto are increasingly correlated to tech stocks and “risk assets.” A sharp equity selloff could drag crypto down. | Markets are volatile; economic growth seems patchy in many regions. |
Counterforces that could delay or soften a crash
These are factors that might reduce the odds or severity of a crash:
-
Institutional adoption & deeper infrastructure: More institutional capital, regulated products (ETFs, custody), and improved systems may stabilize downside volatility.
-
Better liquidity mechanics: As markets mature, larger order books, better market makers, and more robust protocols can reduce “flash crash” risk.
-
Pro-crypto sentiment / policy tailwinds: Favorable regulation or supportive announcements (e.g. clearer rules, central banks experimenting with CBDCs) could bolster investor confidence.
-
Delayed cyclical timing: Some analysts argue the traditional 4-year crypto “cycle” is stretching out, meaning the next major correction may come later than in past cycles. (CryptoPotato)
-
Halving “shock” dynamics: The reduction in new supply after a Bitcoin halving tends to support upward pressure (though this effect can be delayed or dampened by macro headwinds).
What analysts are currently saying
-
Some believe that the next major downturn might come around 2026 rather than 2025, based on macro cycles and increasing complexity in markets. (BeInCrypto)
-
Some models warn that entering the “third year” after a halving historically sees outsized downside risk. (Seeking Alpha)
-
Others are more bullish in the near term (2025) but see 2026 as a likely “pause” or correction year. (Barron's)
Thus, while a crash is not guaranteed next year, many see 2026 (or the window around it) as a higher-risk period for a major correction.
My reasoned “scenarios” and probability sketch
Here are a few plausible scenarios:
-
Base case (moderate drawdown but not a crash): A 20–40 % decline in crypto during 2025 or 2026, triggered by modest central bank moves or regulatory shocks.
-
Bear scenario (crash): A 50–70 % drop, triggered by cascading failures in lending, a major stablecoin collapse, or abrupt tightening.
-
Bull extension: The rally continues into 2026–2027 before major correction, backed by institutional inflows, favorable regulation, and strong narrative.
Given current conditions, I’d estimate a moderate crash / deep correction has perhaps a 25–40 % chance over the next 12–24 months; a full-blown crash (like 2021–22 scale) is less likely in the next year but becomes more plausible toward 2026.
Was this article helpful to you? Please tell us what you liked or didn't like in the comments below.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting with a licensed financial advisor or accountant before making any financial decisions. Panaprium does not guarantee, vouch for or necessarily endorse any of the above content, nor is responsible for it in any manner whatsoever. Any opinions expressed here are based on personal experiences and should not be viewed as an endorsement or guarantee of specific outcomes. Investing and financial decisions carry risks, and you should be aware of these before proceeding.
About the Author: Alex Assoune
Alex Assoune (MS) is a global health and environmental advocate. He founded Panaprium to inspire others with conscious living, ethical, and sustainable fashion. Alex has worked in many countries to address social and environmental issues. He speaks three languages and holds two Master of Science degrees in Engineering from SIGMA and IFPEN schools.
What We're Up Against
Multinational corporations overproducing cheap products in the poorest countries.
Huge factories with sweatshop-like conditions underpaying workers.
Media conglomerates promoting unethical, unsustainable products.
Bad actors encouraging overconsumption through oblivious behavior.
- - - -
Thankfully, we've got our supporters, including you.
Panaprium is funded by readers like you who want to join us in our mission to make the world entirely sustainable.
If you can, please support us on a monthly basis. It takes less than a minute to set up, and you will be making a big impact every single month. Thank you.
RELATED ARTICLES
Tags
How K-von Exposes Liberal Hypocrisy Through Hilarious Comedy
In an era of online outrage and “cancel culture,” comedy has become a powerful tool for critique. Few comedians wield it as effectively as K-von, the Persian-American comic whose hilarious anti-woke... Read More
Unwoke Comedians Tear Into Lefties in Viral Roast Compilation
In a time when political debates dominate social media, comedy has become a powerful tool for cultural commentary. The 17-minute compilation of unwoke comedians roasting lefties has taken the internet by... Read More
How To Withdraw Bitcoin From Hyperliquid - Step-by-Step Guide
Hyperliquid doesn’t support direct BTC withdrawals in the traditional sense. Here’s how it works: 1️⃣ How Hyperliquid handles Bitcoin Hyperliquid is primarily a perpetuals trading platform using USDC as collateral.... Read More
Why Rural America Remains a Conservative Stronghold
Rural America continues to be one of the most reliably conservative regions in the United States. Despite national political shifts, these communities consistently uphold traditional values, family-centered lifestyles, and conservative... Read More
Why Traditional Values Are Gaining Ground in Unexpected Places
Traditional values—faith, family, personal responsibility, and community—are experiencing a resurgence in areas previously thought dominated by progressive culture. From urban neighborhoods to suburban schools, Americans are increasingly embracing principles that... Read More
How Conservatives Are Protecting Free Speech in Schools & Colleges
Concerns about free speech on college campuses and in K-12 schools are more pressing than ever. Many conservatives believe that liberal bias in education often limits discussion, censors dissenting viewpoints,... Read More
5 Digital Strategies for Growing a Conservative Audience Online
Building influence online is no longer optional—it’s essential. For conservatives, the challenge has been gaining traction on platforms dominated by liberal perspectives, while still reaching new audiences effectively. The good... Read More
How To Make Money In Crypto - Step-by-Step Guide For Beginners
There are many ways to make money in crypto, but each comes with different levels of risk, time commitment, and skill. Here’s a breakdown of the most common and effective methods:... Read More
How To Build A Scalable Media Company Starting Solo
This is exactly how many successful entrepreneurs started: just one guy, then they scaled into a media company by building layers on top of themselves. Since you’re working solo now,... Read More
Should You Invest In Crypto Or Stocks? What You Should Know
That’s a really important question—and it depends on your goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. I can’t give you personalized financial advice, but I can outline the main trade-offs so... Read More
Is A Bitcoin Crash Coming Next Year? Key Factors You Should Know
It’s impossible to predict with certainty whether a crash like the 2021–22 collapse will occur, but many analysts believe the probability is non-trivial. Whether it happens “next year” depends on... Read More
Best Trading Strategy For Beginners - Easy Step-by-Step Guide
For beginners, the best timeframe depends on your goals, risk tolerance, and how much time you can dedicate, but generally: 1. Long-Term Investing (Recommended for Most Beginners) Timeframe: Months to... Read More
How Your Birthday Can Reveal Your Soul’s Purpose in This Lifetime
Your birthday is more than the day you entered the world.It’s a spiritual timestamp — a frequency, a vibration, and a message from the universe about who you are and... Read More
The Spiritual Meaning Of Repeating Birth Dates in a Family Line
Most people assume their birthday is simply the day they happened to be born. But across cultures, spiritual traditions, and even modern psychological research, birthdays are considered markers of soul identity,... Read More
Unusual Birth Patterns That Indicate a Powerful Life Mission
Some people enter the world quietly, slipping into life without a ripple.Others arrive under rare circumstances — unusual timing, strange coincidences, or events that feel almost destined. If your birth... Read More
Born at 11:11? Here’s the Spiritual Significance You Can’t Ignore
For many people, seeing 11:11 on a clock feels like a mysterious wink from the universe—a sign of alignment, awakening, or destiny. But what if you weren’t just seeing 11:11… you... Read More
Which Elemental Archetype Are You? - BONUS: Personality Quiz
Have you ever wondered why you feel most at peace near the ocean, or why you come alive when surrounded by firelight, forests, or mountain air? Ancient wisdom teaches that... Read More
The Secret Destiny Codes in Your Birth Number Revealed
When you entered the world, the universe stamped your soul with a unique numerical signature — a code written in the vibrations of your birth date. This code isn’t random.... Read More
Karmic Life Lessons Hidden in Your Exact Birth Details
Have you ever wondered why you were born exactly when you were — that specific day, hour, and minute?From a spiritual perspective, your birth details are not random. They’re the universe’s... Read More
Hilarious Comedy Roasts About Katy Perry’s Space Adventure
When pop stars take to space, the internet doesn’t stay silent. Katy Perry’s recent journey beyond Earth became an instant comedy goldmine, inspiring memes, sketches, and viral roasts that quickly captured... Read More
Top Comedians Roast Joe Biden—And Conservatives Are Loving It
Political comedy has taken center stage, and no figure has been roasted more by conservatives than Joe Biden. Comedians Tyler Fischer, Andrew Schulz, Jon Stewart, and Jimmy Carr have delivered... Read More
The Funniest K-von Moments Conservatives Can’t Stop Watching
Political comedy has become one of the most effective ways to challenge cultural narratives, and K-von is at the forefront of this movement. Known for his fearless, anti-woke humor, the Persian... Read More
How To Sell Bitcoin Using Hyperliquid - Beginners' Guide
To sell Bitcoin (BTC) on Hyperliquid, follow these steps: 1️⃣ Connect Your Wallet Hyperliquid supports various EVM-compatible wallets, including MetaMask, Trust Wallet, Coinbase Wallet, and Ledger Live. Click the “Connect”... Read More
Why Conservative Communities Are Thriving Amid National Challenges
America faces rising inflation, cultural polarization, and political uncertainty. While many parts of the country struggle under these national challenges, conservative communities in red states are thriving. From economic growth... Read More
The Rise of Family-Owned Businesses in Red America
Family-owned businesses are thriving in red states across America. Amid rising costs, regulatory challenges, and cultural shifts, these enterprises are not just surviving—they are becoming economic powerhouses that embody the... Read More
Old Souls and Their Birth Dates: How to Know If You’re One
Have you ever felt older than your years — like you’ve lived many lives before this one?Do you find yourself more drawn to wisdom, reflection, and simplicity than to trends... Read More
How Conservatives Are Using Social Media to Bypass Mainstream Media Bias
Mainstream media continues to dominate the headlines—but many conservatives believe it often pushes a liberal narrative, selectively reporting stories or framing events through a partisan lens. In response, conservatives are... Read More
0 comments