Here’s a breakdown of what I found on Aster (ASTER)—whether it seems overvalued, key risks, and whether buying now might make sense for you. Always do your own due diligence; this is an analysis, not financial advice.
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What the data says: fundamentals, hype, metrics
Strengths / positives:
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Strong launch momentum & activity
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ASTER has seen huge short-term gains (hundreds or over a thousand percent in some reports) right after its Token Generation Event in mid-September 2025. (Cryptonews)
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It has high trading volume, rising TVL (total value locked), and rapidly growing user count. (AInvest)
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Interesting tokenomics & features
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Max supply is 8 billion ASTER; initial circulating supply smaller (~1.65B as of late September). (CoinGecko)
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Over 50% allocated to community (airdrop + incentives) which helps spread adoption. (CoinGecko)
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Useful features: multi-chain support, perpetual derivatives, yield on collateral (staking etc.), a “trade + earn” model. (CoinGecko)
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Strong narrative / endorsement
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Endorsements or credibility from big names (e.g. CZ affiliated, etc.) have helped push visibility. (coinreporter.io)
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Hype and community interest are very strong. (Reddit)
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Risks / red flags:
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Overvaluation concerns / inflated expectations
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Centralization / supply concentration
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Reports suggest a few large wallets (multisigs) control a very big share of tokens (some say 90%+ in top wallets). That gives risk of large sell-pressure or manipulation. (Cryptonews)
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High competition
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Other perp DEXs and platforms (Hyperliquid, etc.) are already established or building. ASTER will need to deliver on promises (performance, adoption, regulatory safety, etc.). (CoinGecko)
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Regulatory risk
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Perpetual derivatives and high leverage products often attract regulatory scrutiny. Being decentralized doesn’t always insulate a project. (CoinGecko)
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Token unlock / dilution risk
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With large locked supply, future unlocks can put downward pressure on price. (CoinGecko)
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Is ASTER “overvalued”?
Given those points:
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Yes, there are signs it could be overvalued relative to what’s actually delivered so far. A lot of the price seems driven by hype, endorsements, growing metrics (volume, TVL) more than fully matured product, long-term revenue streams, or stable user retention.
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The gap between FDV and what’s circulating, plus supply concentration, suggest there’s risk that the price embeds expectations that may or may not be met.
Should you buy now?
That depends on your goals and risk tolerance. Here are scenarios:
| If you are … | Might be reasonable to buy some now if … | But watch out for … |
|---|---|---|
| High risk tolerance / short-term upside | You believe hype will continue, more volume and TVL will rise, maybe you can ride the momentum / get in before more unlocks. Taking a small position and being ready to exit quickly could be profitable. | Big corrections are possible. If the market turns, you could lose a lot. Be ready for volatility and risk of sharp drops. |
| Medium risk / longer term investor | The features look promising: if the team delivers (product, chain, staking, perp usage), it may have good upside. Might make sense to enter gradually rather than all at once. Consider waiting for dips, or after some unlocks happen and some risk dissipates. | Execution risk: roadmap delays, competition, regulatory issues. Also the “airdrop/incentive” driven metrics might fade, making growth slower. Unlock schedule might lead to supply pressure. |
| Low risk / conservative | Probably better to wait. Wait until the token proves it can sustain usage, until some of the hype cools, maybe until large unlocks happen, see more transparency on supply & team control, revenue stability. | Risk of buying at a high, with much of the upside priced in already. If expectations are not met, downside could be steep. |
My view: what I’d do if I were you
If I were in your shoes, here’s how I’d lean:
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I’d likely take a small speculative position in ASTER now, just because the momentum is strong and there’s real potential. But only a small portion of what I’m willing to lose.
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I’d set clear stop-loss / exit triggers (e.g. if price drops X% or if unlocks increase supply significantly).
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I might wait for dips / corrections to add more, rather than trying to catch the top.
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I’d closely monitor unlock schedules, what the team delivers (chain, product features), and see if trading volume / user metrics are sticky or just hype.
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Disclaimer: The above content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting with a licensed financial advisor or accountant before making any financial decisions. Panaprium does not guarantee, vouch for or necessarily endorse any of the above content, nor is responsible for it in any manner whatsoever. Any opinions expressed here are based on personal experiences and should not be viewed as an endorsement or guarantee of specific outcomes. Investing and financial decisions carry risks, and you should be aware of these before proceeding.
About the Author: Alex Assoune
Alex Assoune (MS) is a global health and environmental advocate. He founded Panaprium to inspire others with conscious living, ethical, and sustainable fashion. Alex has worked in many countries to address social and environmental issues. He speaks three languages and holds two Master of Science degrees in Engineering from SIGMA and IFPEN schools.
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