Timing the crypto market can be tricky because even though historical trends show October–November often perform well (sometimes called the “crypto season”), it doesn’t guarantee gains every year. Here’s a breakdown to help you think clearly:
1. Historical Trend Doesn’t Equal Certainty
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Crypto has shown a tendency to rally in Q4, but some years are flat or even down.
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Using history as a guide is helpful, but not a crystal ball.
2. Buying Now vs. Waiting
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Buying now:
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You might catch part of the seasonal rally.
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But prices could still dip (especially if there’s a shakeout).
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Waiting for a dip:
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Could give you a better entry price.
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But you risk missing the rally if prices jump quickly.
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3. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)
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Instead of trying to time the exact bottom, consider buying smaller amounts over time.
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This spreads your risk and avoids the stress of perfect timing.
4. Check Market Conditions
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Look at recent trends, volume, and support levels before entering.
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Avoid buying during spikes caused by hype, which often precede shakeouts.
5. Risk Management
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Only invest what you’re comfortable holding long-term.
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Don’t over-leverage—October–November rallies can have sharp corrections too.
✅ Bottom line: It’s not too late, but don’t expect guarantees. A smart approach is gradual buying with careful position sizing, watching for dips, and being ready for volatility.
Here’s a simple, practical entry plan for buying crypto in October–November while protecting yourself from shakeouts:
Step 1: Decide Your Total Investment
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Decide how much you’re willing to invest for the season.
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Only use money you can afford to hold long-term.
Step 2: Use Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)
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Split your total investment into 4–6 smaller purchases over the next 6–8 weeks.
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Example: If you plan to invest $1,200, buy $200 per week instead of all at once.
Step 3: Watch Key Support Levels
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Identify recent support zones on the chart.
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Try to make purchases near or slightly above these levels to reduce shakeout risk.
Step 4: Avoid Buying During Hype Spikes
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If the price suddenly jumps on news or hype, wait for a pullback.
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Shakeouts often follow hype spikes, which can trigger panic selling.
Step 5: Set Basic Risk Management Rules
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Don’t over-leverage; keep leverage minimal (1x–3x) or avoid it entirely.
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Decide your maximum acceptable loss per trade (e.g., 2–5% of your total portfolio).
Step 6: Monitor Volume and Candlestick Wicks
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Watch for sudden spikes in volume and long wicks, which may signal a shakeout.
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Avoid buying during these volatile moments unless you’re confident in your plan.
Step 7: Hold for the Trend
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The goal is to ride the historical Q4 trend, not to day-trade every spike.
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Patience is key—shakeouts will happen, but they usually don’t last long.
✅ Key Takeaway:
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Buy gradually, near support, avoid hype, and manage risk.
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This way, you’re positioned to take advantage of the October–November trend while reducing the chance of being shaken out.
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About the Author: Alex Assoune
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