It’s impossible to predict with certainty whether a crash like the 2021–22 collapse will occur, but many analysts believe the probability is non-trivial. Whether it happens “next year” depends on how a mix of macro, market, and crypto-specific risk factors play out. Here’s a reasoned assessment of the risks, counter-forces, and scenarios:
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Key factors that could trigger a crash
These are some of the major risk drivers that, if they worsen, could lead to a significant drawdown:
| Risk Factor | Mechanism of Damage | Current Warning Signs |
|---|---|---|
| Monetary tightening / central banks | If inflation stays sticky, central banks (especially the U.S. Fed) may resume rate hikes or delay cuts. That raises discount rates and makes risk assets (like crypto) less attractive. | Inflation remains elevated in many places; central banks are still cautious. |
| Liquidity withdrawal / tighter credit markets | If lending standards tighten, lenders reduce risk exposure, margin calls rise, and forced liquidations cascade. | Some signs of stress in credit markets; increasing yields on government debt. |
| Regulatory or policy shocks | New laws, crackdowns, or bans targeting crypto/DeFi could spook investors and force deleveraging. | Regulatory debates in the U.S., Europe, China, etc., are ongoing and unsettled. |
| Crypto-specific failures | Collapse of a major stablecoin, big protocol exploit, insolvency of large institutions (exchanges, hedge funds) could cause contagion. | Past episodes (e.g. Terra, FTX) show how fragile confidence can be. |
| Correlation to equities / macro risk | Bitcoin and crypto are increasingly correlated to tech stocks and “risk assets.” A sharp equity selloff could drag crypto down. | Markets are volatile; economic growth seems patchy in many regions. |
Counterforces that could delay or soften a crash
These are factors that might reduce the odds or severity of a crash:
-
Institutional adoption & deeper infrastructure: More institutional capital, regulated products (ETFs, custody), and improved systems may stabilize downside volatility.
-
Better liquidity mechanics: As markets mature, larger order books, better market makers, and more robust protocols can reduce “flash crash” risk.
-
Pro-crypto sentiment / policy tailwinds: Favorable regulation or supportive announcements (e.g. clearer rules, central banks experimenting with CBDCs) could bolster investor confidence.
-
Delayed cyclical timing: Some analysts argue the traditional 4-year crypto “cycle” is stretching out, meaning the next major correction may come later than in past cycles. (CryptoPotato)
-
Halving “shock” dynamics: The reduction in new supply after a Bitcoin halving tends to support upward pressure (though this effect can be delayed or dampened by macro headwinds).
What analysts are currently saying
-
Some believe that the next major downturn might come around 2026 rather than 2025, based on macro cycles and increasing complexity in markets. (BeInCrypto)
-
Some models warn that entering the “third year” after a halving historically sees outsized downside risk. (Seeking Alpha)
-
Others are more bullish in the near term (2025) but see 2026 as a likely “pause” or correction year. (Barron's)
Thus, while a crash is not guaranteed next year, many see 2026 (or the window around it) as a higher-risk period for a major correction.
My reasoned “scenarios” and probability sketch
Here are a few plausible scenarios:
-
Base case (moderate drawdown but not a crash): A 20–40 % decline in crypto during 2025 or 2026, triggered by modest central bank moves or regulatory shocks.
-
Bear scenario (crash): A 50–70 % drop, triggered by cascading failures in lending, a major stablecoin collapse, or abrupt tightening.
-
Bull extension: The rally continues into 2026–2027 before major correction, backed by institutional inflows, favorable regulation, and strong narrative.
Given current conditions, I’d estimate a moderate crash / deep correction has perhaps a 25–40 % chance over the next 12–24 months; a full-blown crash (like 2021–22 scale) is less likely in the next year but becomes more plausible toward 2026.
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About the Author: Alex Assoune
Alex Assoune (MS) is a global health and environmental advocate. He founded Panaprium to inspire others with conscious living, ethical, and sustainable fashion. Alex has worked in many countries to address social and environmental issues. He speaks three languages and holds two Master of Science degrees in Engineering from SIGMA and IFPEN schools.
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